COMMUNICATIONS Minister Stephen Conroy's pre-budget announcement of a $308 million package of high-definition set-top boxes for pensioners is clearly aimed at avoiding a grey army backlash at the next election.
While this handout may ease concerns among pensioners about being left without television after the country goes all digital in 2013 it may open up a Pandora's box of demands for similar assistance across the community.
In the 2009 switchover to digital TV in the US, the government offered a discount coupon worth $40 to assist viewers to upgrade from analog. But it soon found it did not have enough coupons to meet the demand from more than 20 million consumers who did not have digital converter boxes.
This week's announcement by Conroy is an extension of the scheme the government launched more than two years ago to assist pensioners in trial switchover areas beginning with Mildura.
Under this arrangement the government has agreed to pay for the installation of a HD set-top box in eligible homes with a limit of one per couple. At the moment the scheme is restricted to those receiving the maximum rate aged pension or similar government support payment and to upgrading one TV set per household.
As with the multibillion-dollar National Broadband Network rollout, Conroy has put his reputation on the line over the digital switchover strategy, which he claims will, like the NBN, revolutionise communications in Australia.
Urging an early take-up of digital, the government says the benefits of this service are indisputable. "Picture and sound quality are better and television programs can be seen on wide-screen mode," it says. "You'll have the same free-to-air channels, plus some new ones, so you will have more choice."
This of course ignores the fact that some people may not want more channels or more and faster services as promised with the NBN, but as with the NBN, Conroy cannot afford to have an opt-out system for those who don't want to go digital. In both cases the service is mandatory.
And the government makes no bones about this. "If you choose not to do anything you will lose free-to-air TV when the switchover is completed in your area," advertisements on TV and on its Digital Ready TV website warn.
Conroy has already handed over more than $250m to the free-to-air networks in compensation for giving up spectrum they use for anolog services, spectrum the government already owns.
He anticipates getting billions of dollars for the sale of this spectrum mainly to telcos for next generation mobile services in what the government calls the digital dividend.
Based on overseas practice, if the government adheres to its December 2013 switch-off deadline it will need to sell this spectrum by the end of next year to give the new operators enough time to get their services in place. But so far no date or details of an auction process have been announced.
When Conroy announced the establishment of a Digital Switchover Taskforce in 2008, he provided for an operational budget of about $40m for the life of the project.
But in the meantime the industry's regulator - the Australian Communications and Media Authority - which sits on top of all this, has grown dramatically. Created in 2005 with a staff of about 520, it now employs more than 670 people with a budget of more than $130m a year. Along with this has been a rise in regulatory communications red tape, which seems certain to continue unabated.
And we can expect another boost in funding in tonight's budget as it pursues its ever expanding ambition to become "the world's best converged communications regulator" by the end of this year.
Pensioners, quite rightly, will not give a toss about this. On the other hand many may well resent being forced to adapt to a new technology when they are quite happy with things the way they are, even if this transition is free.
Conroy may be the spear carrier for a brave new digital world. But he would be well advised to remember that it was he who argued strenuously while in opposition that his elderly father did not want to be forced to change from watching English soccer on free-to-air TV to pay TV.
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